Richard G. Stockey

Ocean and Earth Science

University of Southampton

Office 164/42

National Oceanography Center Southampton

Hi, I am Richard Stockey. I am a Lecturer in Palaeobiology at the University of Southampton.

My research primarily focuses on using numerical and statistical modelling approaches to better understand how environmental change has impacted marine ecosystems through Earth history. Much of my published research to date has focused upon how Earth’s oceans became habitable for marine animals over the last billion years. More recently, I have also begun working to improve our understanding of the similarities and differences between more recent ancient warming events (over the last ~300 million years) and modern anthropogenic climate change.

This website is currently under continued construction. If you can’t find the information you are looking for then please drop me an email and I would be very happy to chat!

selected publications

Decreasing Phanerozoic extinction intensity as a consequence of Earth surface oxygenation and metazoan ecophysiology

Richard G Stockey, Alexandre Pohl, Andy Ridgwell, and 2 more authors

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2021

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The decline in background extinction rates of marine animals through geologic time is an established but unexplained feature of the Phanerozoic fossil record. There is also growing consensus that the ocean and atmosphere did not become oxygenated to near-modern levels until the mid-Paleozoic, coinciding with the onset of generally lower extinction rates. Physiological theory provides us with a possible causal link between these two observations—predicting that the synergistic impacts of oxygen and temperature on aerobic respiration would have made marine animals more vulnerable to ocean warming events during periods of limited surface oxygenation. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that changes in surface oxygenation exerted a first-order control on extinction rates through the Phanerozoic using a combined Earth system and ecophysiological modeling approach. We find that although continental configuration, the efficiency of the biological carbon pump in the ocean, and initial climate state all impact the magnitude of modeled biodiversity loss across simulated warming events, atmospheric oxygen is the dominant predictor of extinction vulnerability, with metabolic habitat viability and global ecophysiotype extinction exhibiting inflection points around 40% of present atmospheric oxygen. Given this is the broad upper limit for estimates of early Paleozoic oxygen levels, our results are consistent with the relative frequency of high-magnitude extinction events (particularly those not included in the canonical big five mass extinctions) early in the Phanerozoic being a direct consequence of limited early Paleozoic oxygenation and temperature-dependent hypoxia responses.
Metabolic tradeoffs control biodiversity gradients through geological time

Thomas H Boag, William Gearty, and Richard G Stockey

Current Biology 2021

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The latitudinal gradient of increasing marine biodiversity from the poles to the tropics is one of the most conspicuous biological patterns in modern oceans.1, 2, 3 Low-latitude regions of the global ocean are often hotspots of animal biodiversity, yet they are set to be most critically affected by anthropogenic climate change.4 As ocean temperatures rise and deoxygenation proceeds in the coming centuries, the volume of aerobically viable habitat is predicted to decrease in these zones.5,6 In contrast to the slightly asymmetrical modern latitudinal biodiversity gradient,7 compilations of fossil occurrences indicate peaks in biodiversity may have existed much further away from the equator in the past, with transitions between climate states hypothesized to explain this trend.8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 We combine a new compilation of fossil mollusc occurrences, paleotemperature proxies, and biogeographic data to reveal a non-monotonic relationship between temperature and diversity in the paleontological record over the last 145 million years. We derive a metabolic model that integrates the kinetic effects of temperature on biodiversity14 with the recently described Metabolic Index that calculates aerobic habitat availability based on the effect of temperature on hypoxia sensitivity.5,15,16 Although factors such as coastal habitat area and homeothermy are important,17,18 we find strong congruence between our metabolic model and our fossil and paleotemperature meta-analysis. We therefore suggest that the effects of ocean temperature on the aerobic scope of marine ectotherms is a primary driver of migrating biodiversity peaks through geologic time and will likely play a role in the restructuring of biodiversity under projected future climate scenarios.
Continental configuration controls ocean oxygenation during the Phanerozoic

Alexandre Pohl, Andy Ridgwell, Richard G Stockey, and 4 more authors

Nature 2022

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The early evolutionary and much of the extinction history of marine animals is thought to be driven by changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations ([O2]) in the ocean1,2,3. In turn, [O2] is widely assumed to be dominated by the geological history of atmospheric oxygen (pO2)4,5. Here, by contrast, we show by means of a series of Earth system model experiments how continental rearrangement during the Phanerozoic Eon drives profound variations in ocean oxygenation and induces a fundamental decoupling in time between upper-ocean and benthic [O2]. We further identify the presence of state transitions in the global ocean circulation, which lead to extensive deep-ocean anoxia developing in the early Phanerozoic even under modern pO2. Our finding that ocean oxygenation oscillates over stable thousand-year (kyr) periods also provides a causal mechanism that might explain elevated rates of metazoan radiation and extinction during the early Palaeozoic Era6. The absence, in our modelling, of any simple correlation between global climate and ocean ventilation, and the occurrence of profound variations in ocean oxygenation independent of atmospheric pO2, presents a challenge to the interpretation of marine redox proxies, but also points to a hitherto unrecognized role for continental configuration in the evolution of the biosphere.
Why the Early Paleozoic was intrinsically prone to marine extinction

Alexandre Pohl, Richard G. Stockey, Xu Dai, and 6 more authors

Science Advances 2023

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The geological record of marine animal biodiversity reflects the interplay between changing rates of speciation versus extinction. Compared to mass extinctions, background extinctions have received little attention. To disentangle the different contributions of global climate state, continental configuration, and atmospheric oxygen concentration (pO2) to variations in background extinction rates, we drive an animal physiological model with the environmental outputs from an Earth system model across intervals spanning the past 541 million years. We find that climate and continental configuration combined to make extinction susceptibility an order of magnitude higher during the Early Paleozoic than during the rest of the Phanerozoic, consistent with extinction rates derived from paleontological databases. The high extinction susceptibility arises in the model from the limited geographical range of marine organisms. It stands even when assuming present-day pO2, suggesting that increasing oxygenation through the Paleozoic is not necessary to explain why extinction rates apparently declined with time. Climate and continental configuration combined to make Early Paleozoic animals susceptible to extinction.
Sustained increases in atmospheric oxygen and marine productivity in the Neoproterozoic and Palaeozoic eras

Richard G Stockey, Devon B Cole, Una C Farrell, and 8 more authors

Nature Geoscience 2024

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A geologically rapid Neoproterozoic oxygenation event is commonly linked to the appearance of marine animal groups in the fossil record. However, there is still debate about what evidence from the sedimentary geochemical record—if any—provides strong support for a persistent shift in surface oxygen immediately preceding the rise of animals. We present statistical learning analyses of a large dataset of geochemical data and associated geological context from the Neoproterozoic and Palaeozoic sedimentary record and then use Earth system modelling to link trends in redox-sensitive trace metal and organic carbon concentrations to the oxygenation of Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. We do not find evidence for the wholesale oxygenation of Earth’s oceans in the late Neoproterozoic era. We do, however, reconstruct a moderate long-term increase in atmospheric oxygen and marine productivity. These changes to the Earth system would have increased dissolved oxygen and food supply in shallow-water habitats during the broad interval of geologic time in which the major animal groups first radiated. This approach provides some of the most direct evidence for potential physiological drivers of the Cambrian radiation, while highlighting the importance of later Palaeozoic oxygenation in the evolution of the modern Earth system.